- Brexit was a surprise high impact, low probability event.
- Although stock markets got crushed, Brexit had an easy hedge.
- Brexit signals a new epoch of markets, with new currencies, new rules.
- Other countries can follow Britain, splintering the EU into pieces.
Britain will leave the European Union. The European Union (EU) – a noble idea hatched in the smoke of burning rubble after World War 2, now has an existential threat. The very question of the existence of the EU itself, and of the Euro, now is open for debate. Before Brexit, it wasn’t a question. Unlike most EU countries, Britain maintained their own currency, the Great British Pound GBP traded on the stock market as iPath GBP/USD Exchange Rate ETN (NYSEARCA:GBB). Other countries however, do not have such luxury. Spain, for example, that uses the Euro, has no other currency. So for other countries to leave the EU, it’s not so easy. Brexit is not only bearish for the Pound and UK in general it’s a sign of a splintering of the European Union itself.